The Commercial Signals.

You haven't committed to a problem or customer yet, and at this stage that is the right place to be. The signal here is honest, open attention. You're looking widely, noticing what holds you, and learning how others have approached similar things, without rushing to name a solution.

You don't hold this signal if: you've already locked onto an answer and gone looking for reasons it's right. Exploring isn't defending an early pick. The signal is genuine openness, the willingness to be moved by what you find.

The proof: people you don't know describe the problem back to you, unprompted, in their own words. They've tried to solve it themselves, badly, with whatever was at hand.

You don't hold this signal if: the only person who can articulate the problem is you. Your conviction isn't evidence. Friends agreeing isn't evidence. The signal is a stranger making your case for you.

The proof: you can name the specific group who feel the problem most sharply, and explain why them and not the next group over. You're turning people away because they're not who this is for.

You don't hold this signal if: your customer is "everyone who has this problem". A market that includes everyone is a customer you haven't found yet. The signal is a sharp edge between who this is for and who it isn't.

The proof: you can state what you're deliberately not building, and why. The shape of the solution is driven by what you learned proving signals 01 and 02, not by what's fun or fast to build.

You don't hold this signal if: the scope only ever grows. A solution that does everything is one you've made no decisions about. The signal is a clear no, an idea you cut on purpose because it doesn't serve the customer you named.

The proof: real users have used the thing and you've watched their behaviour, not their opinions. You can point to what they did, where they got stuck, and what they came back to.

You don't hold this signal if: your evidence is what people told you in a demo. Said isn't did. Praise isn't use. The signal is behaviour you observed, especially the parts that didn't go the way you expected.

The proof: someone has paid, or made a commitment that costs them something, before the thing was fully built or guaranteed. A deposit. A signed pre-order. A reallocated budget. Money or a costly promise, from someone you're not related to.

You don't hold this signal if: people say they would pay. Stated intent isn't a signal. A waitlist isn't a signal. Enthusiasm in an interview isn't a signal. The signal is the moment willingness turns into cost.

The proof: you can explain why the last few customers bought, and that explanation holds from one sale to the next. The wins are starting to look like a pattern, not a run of luck.

You don't hold this signal if: every sale has a different story and you're the only thing they have in common. A win you can't explain is a win you can't repeat. The signal is a reason that survives more than one customer.

The proof: you're making the next bet against evidence, not against momentum. New moves are tested the way the first one was, rather than assumed to work because the business does.

You don't hold this signal if: growth decisions are now made on confidence alone. Past success isn't evidence for the next thing. The signal is that you still ask for proof, even when you no longer feel you need it.